Donald Trump’s «geopolitical voodoo». Norway should insure Ukraine

It is clear that the Russian leader has too big of an ego to engage in real negotiations. Despite the severe failures in Russia’s economy, Putin, using all the energy of his security apparatus and powerful propaganda machine, is still managing to stay afloat. However, the power pyramid of the dictator’s regime will begin to crumble once his failures become obvious to ordinary Russians.

Putin seems to believe that he can easily outmaneuver the U.S. president during a personal meeting, and all that is needed is for it to take place in the right city and at the right time. After all, during the meeting in Helsinki, he was once able to do this.

But Putin still doesn’t understand that everything the 47th President of the United States is doing today is nothing more than the implementation of the principles of «geopolitical voodoo» – Trumpism – into domestic and foreign policy. Under the magical incantations that America comes first, much more complex processes are hidden. Processes that, for a time, remain undetectable to the outside observer.

And the more Putin rejects Trump’s peace proposals, the more the U.S. president will put pressure on him. Trump is accustomed to the ability to dominate his opponents through money and power. He will use any necessary means to maintain and exploit this advantage. At the same time, the Kremlin leader has studied Trump’s personality profile well. Putin has flattered the American president, but this is just a deceptive trick to lull his vigilance and impose his demands on Ukraine.

However, the Kremlin sees that Trump still doesn’t have a definitive strategy for dealing with Putin regarding Ukraine, and Putin has no desire for the U.S. president to appear favorable to his partners. While Donald Trump tactically maneuvers, the Russian leader wants to deliver him a humiliating diplomatic defeat. By delaying the possibility of not only ending the war but also freezing the confrontation until the start of negotiations.

Moscow is hoping that Trump will force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia on its terms, which would essentially be an unspoken proclamation of a new world order. Putin hopes that, in this new world order, the United States will no longer be the global leader.

The Kremlin hopes that now countries stronger than their neighbors and armed with nuclear weapons will be able to do whatever they want on the international stage. After which, China will demonstrate this principle in a global context in a few years.

Moreover, even if Ukraine agrees to cede its territories, Russia will not assume any obligations not to invade other parts of Ukraine later. If European peacekeeping forces are stationed along the line of demarcation, Trump’s plan does not foresee American troops taking responsibility for defending them if Russian forces begin moving toward Ukrainian territory again.

Trumpism has become a sort of religion for a large part of the American population. They continue to blindly believe in what their public preacher tells them. At the same time, the U.S. president remains an entirely unpredictable politician, with spontaneous actions that are hard to calculate. Therefore, hoping that he will quickly restore aid to Ukraine means not preparing for the possibility that this aid will be delayed again and again under various pretexts.

Western civilization is in mortal danger. Russia’s war in Ukraine is a direct threat to the leadership and dominant role of democratic states in the world. The fate of the European continent itself depends on how the Russian-Ukrainian war ends. In such an uncertain situation, Norway could provide a safety net for Ukraine.

History will severely judge those world leaders who stand by and watch as Ukraine bleeds, doing little to stop Russia’s aggressive war. Many in the West, when talking about helping Ukraine in its fight against the totalitarian monster – the Russian Federation, believe they are doing enough. However, neighboring European states should be doing more.

This shifting of responsibility onto others has already led to a situation where, at such a crucial moment in history, when the fate of global civilization is at stake, some in Europe are trying to sit back behind NATO’s protective walls, thinking that others should fight for them. Europe must finally wake up and act in a way that pushes back the Russian threat looming over the entire continent.

Therefore, other opportunities for quickly providing military assistance to Ukraine must be explored. And they exist. For example, today, the Norwegian National Wealth Fund (NBIM), which is a special unit of the Central Bank, exceeds 1.4 trillion dollars.

The figure of state savings is simply enormous. This small country, with a population of only 5 million people, has managed to have such a significant influence on global commercial and energy markets, thanks to its highly educated, rational, and professional people. We can speak of the «Norwegian miracle», when Norway, once one of the poorest countries in Europe, where people even in the 20th century often lacked basic food for survival and its infrastructure was primitive, became one of the economic leaders of Europe.

And if previously its only export commodity was fish, over the past 50 years, Norway has transformed into a leading exporter of gas and oil. Oil, gas, salmon and herring catch have become the foundation of the national wealth of the Norwegian nation. However, despite having the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world today, they are facing the threat of a potential foreign invasion. In the last century, it was the occupation of Norway by Germany, and now it is the danger of an invasion by Putin’s Russia, which is eager for foreign money and resources.

Norway’s border with Russia is the most painful issue that cannot be fully resolved, even though the country has long been a member of the NATO defense alliance. By many indicators, Norway is a unique country. Currently, Norwegians rank fourth in the world in terms of GDP per capita. At the same time, Norway ranks second in the list of the wealthiest countries in the world in monetary terms, with the largest capital reserve per capita among other countries, and has become a powerful external creditor.

Norwegians possess vast oil reserves, especially considering the size of their population. Norway produces about 2 million barrels of oil per day, while the United States produces 11 million barrels. This is despite the fact that the population of the United States is 66 times larger than Norway’s. Moreover, the oil profits are shared by all Norwegians, unlike in the Russian Federation, where Putin and his inner circle control the majority of the profits.

Norway is a well-governed democracy, and they have accumulated profits from oil and gas by investing them in ways that benefit their citizens both now and in the future. By creating a well-thought-out system of stabilization and risk avoidance, Norwegians carefully manage their sovereign wealth fund for intergenerational cooperation between present and future generations of Norwegians.

But now, Norwegians sit on a huge pile of money, and it is a very tempting target for Moscow. Therefore, it is likely that in Oslo, they have already asked themselves whether it will be Norway, rather than the Baltic States, that will be the next country Putin attempts to invade in order to control all oil and gas supplies to Europe.

And this is by no means a rhetorical question. The situation from the time of World War II could very well be replicated if Western allies continue to assist Ukraine on a residual basis. When German troops invaded Norway on April 9, 1940, they planned to capture King Haakon VII and the government to force the country to surrender.

However, the royal family, the government, and most members of the Storting managed to evacuate before the occupation forces reached Oslo. At that time, the Germans demanded that the king appoint a government headed by the Nazi sympathizer Vidkun Quisling.

But the king rejected the German ultimatum. On June 7, 1940, the king, the crown prince, and the government left the city of Tromsø for England, establishing a government in exile in London to lead the resistance efforts. King Haakon became the main symbol of the Norwegian people’s struggle for a free and independent Norway.

As history teaches, everything can repeat itself if the necessary lessons are not learned in time. Today, every nation that values democracy must fully support Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself from Putin’s bloody aggression, understanding that by doing so, it is also protecting its own future. This support must include enough weapons, materials, and finances to enable the Ukrainians to drive the enemy from their internationally recognized territories and to crush any hope the Kremlin has of further conquest.

Today, Norway is one of the most democratic, politically stable, and socially oriented countries on earth, with wise leaders, gender-balanced representation in parliament, and a long-term, unwavering commitment to defending the world from potential aggressors and tyrants.

Given all these factors, it is possible to approach the issue of financing assistance to Ukraine differently. One option could be to propose that the European Union act as a guarantor for Norway’s provision of loans to Ukraine.

There are two options to consider. The first is for Norway to provide Ukraine with a short-term loan until the issue of transferring the 300 billion Russian financial assets, which have been frozen in Europe and the United States, is resolved.

The second option is for Norway to offer long-term intergovernmental loans to Ukraine, with terms of 10-20 years or more, which would significantly change the situation in providing assistance to the Ukrainian people in their national liberation war against the Moscow invaders.

Currently, so much is at stake that it is crucial to urgently convey the idea of Norwegian assistance to Ukraine to those in Brussels who make decisions in the European Parliament and its relevant committees.

It would be advisable for the Ukrainian side to quickly reach out to its allies in the European Union – Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia – through diplomatic channels, proposing the idea of Norwegian financial assistance to Ukraine within the EU. At the same time, Ukraine should begin negotiations with Oslo on this matter.

Norway can determine the outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine. However, prompt and decisive action is needed. Norway is doing many things right, and the decision to assist Ukraine at this critically important moment could shape the future of Europe for decades, if not centuries.