Trump’s post-tariff moves: how to leverage Putin’s unreliability

In fact, this acceleration is necessary for both the U.S. and China (or rather, China has accepted the challenge of acceleration) to try to overcome that weakness. And today, there is only one way to overcome it: by building larger economic alliances around themselves.

The concepts of the two hegemons are fundamentally different: the U.S. offers friendship through preferential access to the global supermarket (its market). China offers investments in logistics and infrastructure to expand the sales market for its producers.

Overall, both models work, because they offer important benefits to the elites of their allies (and others):

1. Access to making money. At the same time, it’s important that both hegemons, while adopting global rules for money laundering control, clearly understand: fighting corruption is the best way to maintain internal and external control over elites (essentially maintaining policing functions). They just approach «corruption charges» differently. 
2. Both countries guarantee, within reason, the immunity of their proxies (in the worst case, they grant them political asylum).
3. Both countries offer a vision of the future (peripheral elites understand where and how they can move forward). Though China has one major shortcoming: the absence of its own Hollywood – but that's a topic for a longer discussion.
4. At the same time, this concept has one global problem: neither China nor the U.S. wants to assume military obligations almost anywhere in the world. This is the main pain point of the concept – because both hegemons, at best, only talk about weapons support.

So, what do we have «on the output» now?

«First of all, we need to say that the new model of world order is still being created (and it’s not certain whether it will be established in a relatively short period of time). Let me remind you, the main problem of this model is the weakness of the hegemons».

Secondly, right now we are not fighting for a third world, but for regional leader countries. Whoever can pull the majority of them to their side will gain a time lag to strengthen themselves. Let's recall that the smallest tariffs were imposed, for example, on Turkey and Egypt. The logic here is not only about economic issues, but also security matters, military power, and the ambitions of the countries themselves.

Thirdly, and I will not tire of repeating this, the key «point of tension» has become Europe, which is crucial because whoever gains Europe as an ally will gain significant economic advantages. This is why negotiations in the triangle of Ukraine – the U.S. – the EU have become more important for us than negotiations with Ukraine – the U.S. – Russia (especially since Russia has, de facto, withdrawn from these talks).

And fourthly, Russia's exit from the negotiations opens a window of opportunity for us in the sense that, perhaps for the first time in the last 80 years, large segments of European and American elites are beginning (will begin) to realize that Russia's existence in its current format is a threat, especially if it becomes part of the «Chinese world».