Analysis: After Paris Talks, A New Chapter In Ukraine Peace Drive?

There was recently talk of getting a Ukraine cease-fire in place by Easter. That hasn’t happened, but there may have been some tangible progress in diplomatic efforts to cheer hearts this weekend.

The noises coming out of Paris following high-level talks between key European countries, Ukraine, and the United States have been unusually positive.

It was the first such meeting between them in this format, and in many ways the omens were not good.

US efforts to get Russia to agree to any kind of a cease-fire have been met with vague words and increased bombing by Moscow.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff said a deal was «emerging» after his third meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 11 – hinting that Ukraine must make massive territorial concessions to Russia.

In Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Witkoff of «spreading Russian narratives».

No Cameras, Please

In Paris, a 45-second video was released showing Emmanuel Bonne, a senior French adviser, apparently asking Witkoff to begin proceedings with a debrief before the camera team was hustled out by security.

It seemed as if they wanted to kick the cameras out before he said anything.

«It's perfectly clear that most of the European leaders, including [French President Emmanuel] Macron, are fully opposed to all the proposals made, especially by Steve Witkoff», French political analyst Nicolas Tenzer told RFE/RL.

But Tenzer, who is chairman of the Center for Studies and Research on Political Decision (CERAP), a Paris think tank, added that the meeting itself was a sign of progress.

«They are now understanding that they cannot make any kind of agreement without the Europeans», he said.

New agreements on Ukraine were not declared. But the parties did agree that there would be more talks next week in London in the new format: Europe, Ukraine, and the United States. This seems to be a major development.

A Place At The Table

Also at the Paris talks was US envoy Keith Kellogg, who in Munich in February said Europe would not have a place at the table when Ukraine’s future was negotiated. Kellogg has himself since been largely absent from key meetings.

«The «E3» are around the table and we're doing it with a European ambition», said a French diplomat, referring to Britain, France, and Germany collectively.

Alina Polyakova, president of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington, also said the meeting suggested that Washington was now seeking support from Europe.

«They realized that you need European input because they have skin in the game», she said.

«This is not just about a swath of territory in Ukraine. This is about broader questions of European security and you can’t disentangle those».

There were also diplomatic developments elsewhere.

While leaders gathered in Paris, US President Donald Trump was hosting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in the White House.

He said there could be two other developments in the coming days: an agreement with Ukraine in giving the United States access to its rare earth minerals, and a response from Russia on a possible cease-fire in Ukraine.

In both cases, earlier optimistic statements from US officials have failed to bear fruit.

But the prospect of a new diplomatic track involving Europe, Ukraine, and the United States is genuinely new. The question now is whether the announced meeting in London will be the start of a fruitful new diplomatic process – or just another dead end.

Ray Furlong