Can Europe avoid war with Russia?

More and more European leaders are beginning to understand that avoiding a direct conflict with Russia will not be possible. After all, Russia’s war in Ukraine is not a local regional conflict, as Moscow would like to portray it, but an all‑European war in which united Europe is not yet directly participating. Putin continues to provoke Europe and NATO, testing them with his provocations and assuming Europeans will not dare enter into direct confrontation with Russia. We are now approaching a critical moment that could lead to a clash between European armed forces and Russia’s terrorist army.

However, if Russia cannot defeat Ukraine, how does it expect to confront the combined armed forces of NATO? The Russian army is not invincible, and the number of people the Putin regime is ready to sacrifice for the war is not infinite. Putin will keep escalating until he runs into NATO military forces and decisive action from Europeans. Of course, Europe does not want war, but the Kremlin’s Führer is just like other dictators who came before him. Repeated warnings are good, but they must be backed up by concrete actions if future incursions into European airspace continue.

And that means – shooting down Russian military aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles. Putin must know that if his «mighty army» cannot occupy Ukraine, it has no chance against NATO. It is time to act and provide Ukraine with the means to strike deep into Russian territory so that the population of Russia finally understands that the war now concerns everyone there.

The Russian dictator acts like a bully – only a geopolitical bully. And like any bully, he will press on as long as he can until he is pushed back. Right now he is not quite ready to start a war with NATO because he is not confident of victory.

And nuclear war is not an option for him, because it would inevitably destroy his country and his rule. That is why he is trying to divide and weaken the North Atlantic Alliance, as it poses the greatest threat to his plans to eliminate Ukrainian statehood and bring Europe under his control.

NATO has begun to realize that a confrontation with Russia is only a matter of time. It will inevitably happen if Putin continues to lead Russia. He needs victory over Ukraine and its removal from the world map. That is why all previous peace initiatives by U.S. President Donald Trump, involving territorial concessions by Ukraine, do not satisfy him. He wants everything and is not willing to give up any of his maniacal plans.

But even if we hypothetically assume that Putin decides to invade Europe and Donald Trump suddenly declares that this is not his war but a European war, refusing to send American troops to help, Moscow would still have no chance. When comparing human resources, the total population of NATO member states, excluding the United States, is about 640 million compared to Russia’s 140 million.

Regarding NATO troop numbers, excluding the United States, they total about 1.7 million, while Russia has around 1.2 million. They have roughly the same amount of conventional military equipment, although Russia has more nuclear warheads.

However, radiation does not respect borders, so if neither side uses nuclear weapons, Europe with NATO has a significant advantage. They also clearly have a financial advantage. The unknown factor remains the actions of other countries in such a war. Would China, North Korea, or Iran assist Russia? Would Japan, Australia, and South Korea support Europe and NATO?

A dangerous aspect of the confrontation between Ukraine and the West with Russia is that Putin knows if he loses this war he may be removed from power in Russia. For him, the only way not to lose is to spread the fighting to other countries. In that case, he counts on involving South Korea and China.

NATO should have taken Russia seriously after the full‑scale invasion in 2022, if not in 2014. The Alliance’s hesitation and indecision have prolonged the Russian‑Ukrainian war. NATO countries still cannot impose all possible sanctions on Russia.

The Putin regime is biding its time and preparing for a new aggressive leap. This could well be an invasion of smaller European countries – Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Romania or Finland – to see how the Alliance will react when the threat crosses their borders and what their capacity to respond to an external threat will be. Their NATO membership will not stop Putin.

He has already cemented his relationship, support and military plans with China and North Korea, not forgetting Iran and Belarus. When Putin attacks smaller NATO members – and he will, given what he is doing in Ukraine and openly ignoring external responses – China and North Korea could start military operations against Taiwan and the Philippines.

Russia is testing the capabilities of the North Atlantic Alliance, its speed of response, and its human resources. An invasion of Europe is only a matter of time. It was a mistake to allow Russia to entrench itself on the occupied Ukrainian lands. They will not withdraw unless forced out. All warnings to Moscow sound fine, but action is the only factor that will work.

In this unequal struggle for the future of human civilization, Ukraine is making enormous efforts to survive as an independent state and defeat a treacherous enemy. It has chosen the right strategy: it must continue striking Russian fuel depots and oil refineries – an army without fuel or money to replenish supplies cannot fight for long.

Russia still has many vulnerabilities that must be identified in time and struck. Vast territories seized from other peoples could lose operational connectivity between them if airports in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and several dozen other major Russian cities stop working or are temporarily blocked. Not to mention that if rail links between central Russia and Siberia and the Far East are severed for a long time, this will create major logistical problems for supplying weapons from North Korea and high‑technology equipment from China needed to continue the war.

The sooner Putin is put in his place, the better. Despite Moscow’s nuclear blackmail and attempts to intimidate the West by saying Russia has nothing to lose, the dictator and his inner circle very much want to keep living – otherwise all the decades‑long plundering of Russia by the Putinists would be futile. Who then would enjoy the trillions of dollars stolen from the Russian people?

If he opts for the nuclear scenario and sharply escalates confrontation with the West, the answer could be very simple and clear: neither Putin nor Russia would survive to see the outcome.

If Russia attacks Europe, Putin will make a grave mistake. That would be a three‑front war – Europe from the west, Ukraine from the south, and America from the east through Alaska. Any NATO ally could join whichever front suits it best. By multiplying his enemies, he cannot hope to win where victory is impossible.

In this critically important time, Europe and the collective West must decide whether to take up arms and fight Putin, who wants to reshape the world to fit his perverse whims – thereby choosing to defend freedom – or to continue watching Ukraine do that work for them for more than three and a half years.

After all, this is about defending freedom for future generations, and the price of freedom can be very high. Had people not fought in World War II, one can only imagine what the world would look like now if built on Hitler’s warped desires.

Driven by his maniacal ideas, Putin sees himself as a geopolitical messiah whose mission goes far beyond seizing Ukraine – he wants to change the world order and cement those changes for centuries.

The outbreak of a Third World War is not inevitable if Putin is shown his place by force now. There is no need to hesitate on that decision.

Any delayed decision will never solve the problem – the issue will still have to be dealt with, but delaying will require far greater effort than acting in time.