Ukraine’s victory only path to peace. Russian threat must be eliminated

Putin does not look like a victor – this is even visible visually. Moreover, his insane gaze strongly resembles that of the main Soviet terrorist of the 20th century, Lenin, on the eve of his death.

As is known, the eyes are the mirror of the soul. And although one may doubt that the Kremlin fiend has a soul at all, seeing, even once, the deranged and hunted look of Moscow’s leader allows one to draw a logical conclusion: even he has begun to realize that the end of his criminal regime may come much sooner than anyone can imagine.

The Russian dictator has no plan for victory. Unfortunately, the collective West also lacks a real plan to neutralize Putin – especially when it comes to devising a strategy against a totalitarian revanchist gone mad with impunity, who already dreams of being the ruler of the world.

The Russian leader has certainly grasped the unspoken message of U.S. President Donald Trump, which can be decoded by recalling what Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once said about the Iran-Iraq war: «It is a pity that they cannot both lose».

This definition today fits the Russian-Ukrainian war perfectly, as it explains why our American and European allies do not provide Ukraine with full-scale support – aid that could stop the Moscow hordes and help liberate Ukrainian lands from their control.

The question is whether Putin has a strategy to exit the criminal war he started in Ukraine. It is obvious that he has begun to realize he cannot win. Yet at the same time, he does not want to lose or admit defeat. This is reinforced by President Trump’s stance, which is still undecided on whether to take the right side of history and truly help Ukraine or continue with partial U.S. aid – effectively prolonging Putin’s war.

Meanwhile, more influential experts in the U.S. are trying to convey to decision-makers that critical elements necessary for Ukraine’s victory are lacking – a victory that could be a key factor in U.S. relations with both China and Russia. Partial support for Ukraine cannot be justified, yet it has dominated Western policy for years.

This coincides with a situation in which Donald Trump either does not wish to or cannot effectively oppose Putin, and his actions, or inaction, encourage Russian aggression.

Trump’s approaches clearly weaken U.S. influence and undermine NATO’s authority, yet this seems of little concern to the American president, who shows an inexplicable attraction to the Russian dictator that is difficult to explain.

Ukraine is now paying an extremely high price for not having stopped Putin when he invaded Crimea in 2014. In the Kremlin’s worldview, Ukraine is just the first step toward seizing more territory from its neighbors. It will be much cheaper to stop him now than to wait for future wars. Moreover, Moscow’s provocations in the skies over Poland and Estonia indicate that the dictator has no intention of stopping.

Ultimately, it comes down to when the Russian elite will find a way to get rid of Putin. Victory or defeat, he will not survive the end of the war. If he loses, he cannot hold onto the presidency because he is a failure. If he wins, the economy will be in ruins, and he will leave office as a political bankrupt.

The Russian establishment understands all this, which is why it is trying through trusted figures to secretly negotiate with the West outside of Putin’s team. However, since their demands toward Ukraine do not differ much from Putin’s, rapprochement with the U.S. and Europe seems problematic.

One possible scenario that emerges is a new Russian revolution or a palace coup to topple Putin’s regime – the latter seeming far more realistic than the former. The usurper could easily be eliminated by someone, perhaps by members of Putin’s own security detail. But since the families of those guards are effectively held hostage by the authorities, none of them has yet dared to take that risk.

If Donald Trump gives up his «infatuation» with Putin and supplies Ukraine with all the weapons it needs, we could witness Russia’s defeat. That outcome would strengthen Western democracies – because if Russia truly won, Western democratic governments would face grave danger.

Putin lives in a fantasy world where Russia was once a great power that competed with Western states. In reality, the USSR was never truly a great power, and in trying to compete with the collective West on equal terms, it was ruined and fell apart.

The Russian revolution overthrew the old aristocracy, but it was replaced by a communist nomenklatura that sought to control everything from top to bottom and was riddled with total corruption. The USSR then collapsed, and attempts to build a democratic state under the pseudo-democrat Boris Yeltsin were undermined by the rise of a new oligarchy that seized Russia’s wealth for itself. To hold power, Putin now tries to act in the old imperial way – by conquest – but in the 21st century that no longer works.

Strategically, Putin is already losing and is “erasing” his troops on the war fronts – evidenced by the fact that he had to ask North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong Un to send soldiers to the Kursk region. It is worth wondering what he would do if uprisings broke out simultaneously in the Caucasus, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, and the Sakha Republic (Yakutia). Would he then ask China’s leader Xi Jinping for troops?

The only path to peace is Ukraine’s victory. This is a geopolitical axiom that needs no proof, because Ukraine has made the greatest contribution to the future defeat of the Russian Federation. Receiving measured aid in weapons, finance, and sanctions from the West, Ukraine has absorbed the full force of the Russian invasion.

At the same time, Ukraine has not only pushed Russia away from its capital Kyiv and other major cities, but has destroyed huge amounts of equipment and supplies from the Russian arsenal and the Black Sea Fleet. Russian army losses already exceed one million. We deeply value the help and contributions of our allies, but to reverse the situation and expel Russian occupation forces from all our internationally recognized territories, Ukrainians need a sharp increase in that assistance.

We must learn from past mistakes. Although one of the best U.S. presidents, Ronald Reagan, won the Cold War, his successor George H. W. Bush and his conservative circle perhaps made the greatest foreign‑policy mistake in human history. The transition of Russia to a «capitalist» economy after the Cold War was terribly mismanaged because it was carried out on the basis of a very naive conservative belief in the virtues of capitalism that ignored Russia’s concrete circumstances.

The conservatives were so intoxicated by their victory over the Soviet Union that they naively assumed capitalism and democracy would naturally flourish in post‑Soviet Russia. It was as if cannibals suddenly proclaimed publicly that they were completely changed, progressive, fully enlightened and had become convinced vegetarians – and the West somehow believed their fervent assurances.

Instead, the transition to capitalism in post‑Soviet Russia tragically failed and produced an anti‑democratic oligarchic dictatorship whose cruelty far exceeds medieval feudalism. It is also less stable and more revanchist than even the former USSR, because the world’s largest nuclear arsenal is now controlled by a single person.

It appears that the United States needs to seriously consider not how to appease Russia – because that is impossible – but how to develop a program for dealing with Moscow after the war in Ukraine. One cannot rule out the possibility that Russia’s elites together with the «good Russians» might again launch another round of «perestroika», and that the American president, Donald Trump, or his successor, will declare that, for the sake of a new Russia, we must provide it with any aid it requests.

We must finally understand that Russia, in its current territorial form, can never become a democratic state. On that basis, effective mechanisms must be developed to minimize threats to neighboring countries in the event of the Russian Federation’s collapse.

The Russian dictator Putin does not look like a victor today, and everything must be done to ensure that soon he looks like the defeated. Unpunished evil always returns as an even greater evil. Therefore, every effort must be made to ensure the Russian threat is eliminated once and for all.