Europe edges toward its «Pearl Harbor» moment

Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warned the influential British outlet The Telegraph that Vladimir Putin’s hybrid war is pushing Europe toward a new deadly «Pearl Harbor» moment. Landsbergis emphasized: «Do we accept the reality that we may already be at war, or do we still believe we control the situation? We are allowing escalating tensions without proper responses. If this continues, we should expect Europe to experience a day like Pearl Harbor, when escalation becomes impossible to ignore and forces the West to awaken».

And indeed, this is the case. Europeans are hesitating while «Russia has become not just a European, but a global problem». Dictator Putin is one of the most dangerous war criminals in world history, who has made the genocide of Ukrainians the central focus of his life.

However, the horrors of World War II have warped Western decision-making to such an extent that leaders in the collective West, when confronted with Russia’s war in Ukraine, concluded that limited military engagement with limited losses was preferable to full-scale confrontation with the enemy.

From the outset, it was clear that delayed decisions could not solve the problem and only prolong it.

Any military conflict is inherently risky and uncertain, but the assumption that limited involvement is the optimal solution was strategically flawed from the start. Such an approach leads to longer wars, higher casualties and costs, and ultimately further provokes Putin to continue his bloody war in Ukraine.

By starting the war, Russia underestimated the willpower and state-minded convictions of the Ukrainian people, who refused to fall under the rule of a mad, bloodthirsty despot who regarded all Ukrainian lands as his rightful spoils. But the United States, while expressing support for Ukrainian sovereignty, effectively tied one of Ukraine’s hands behind its back with its restrictions and bans. When a once‑dominant army launches total war, it can never be defeated by defense alone.

Putin will never stop the war until the people of the Russian Federation themselves feel that the war has come to them too – that it has brought them pain and suffering. As long as the consequences of retaliation concern only Ukrainians, people in Russia do not feel the cost of retribution for the atrocities they have committed on Ukrainian territory.

We must acknowledge that the idea of providing Ukraine with half‑measures was laid down during the presidency of Joe Biden. Sadly, it was not abandoned during the term of the 47th U.S. president, Donald Trump. Yet limiting Ukraine’s support to what is only necessary for defensive operations, and withholding modern weapons needed to deliver a knockout blow to Putin’s terrorist forces, does not serve the geopolitical interests of the United States.

A Ukrainian victory over Russia would help deter China from any planned invasion of Taiwan, at least for a time, removing the prospect of a U.S.–China clash. When will the West finally understand that appeasement, half‑measures and compromises with tyrants do not work? Peace can come only when enemies feel your strength, and your military power serves as a reliable shield protecting your country and its allies from hostile attacks.

Therefore, the fastest path to peace is simple: a decisive Ukrainian victory on the battlefield.

Putin must not be allowed to hide behind the threat of a Third World War or an exchange of nuclear strikes – threats he uses to terrorize Ukraine’s civilian population and reduce cities and villages in eastern and southern Ukraine to rubble. He has turned the lives of Ukrainian civilians into hell, and that hell must be returned to Russia as retribution for his unprovoked invasion of a sovereign state – a founding member of the United Nations, which has so far failed to stop Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

It is evident that in the United States and united Europe, the prevailing view has been that the Russia-Ukraine war in its current form would continue until Russia is exhausted militarily, economically, politically, and diplomatically, and until Putin loses the desire to start a new war in the near future.

However, Putin imposes no limits on his actions in Ukraine, attacking civilian targets and critical infrastructure, while Ukrainians are forced to restrain their counterattacks due to American restrictions. As a result, Moscow has no incentive to halt its aggressive actions or consider moving toward a peace agreement. Without applying forceful methods to check the despot, there is little hope of ending this protracted war.

Putin started the war but refuses to take responsibility for its consequences. He seeks a boxing match in which his opponent’s hands are tied. The dictator views the conflict as a kind of military operation in which the West helps Ukraine only minimally, while he does whatever he wants on Ukrainian territory and continually refuses to negotiate.

Now he is testing NATO countries through drones, airspace incursions, and troop buildups on the alliance’s borders. The Kremlin leader cannot imagine ending the war without Ukraine’s defeat, and he does not even consider the possibility of his own partial or total defeat.

The United States must finally resolve the issue of providing Ukrainians with the weapons needed to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. It is clear that long-range missiles capable of destroying a significant portion of Russia’s oil production could reduce the risk posed by the mad bear.

Meanwhile, he believes he can intimidate Europe, putting forward absurd claims that European intervention in the war and assistance to Ukraine would be considered aggression against Russia. The Putin theater of absurdity continues, and when Europe truly decides to help Ukraine, it will be an act of defense, not aggression.

Moscow accuses Europe of doing what it does itself – provoking confrontation and waging hybrid war. But from the start, Moscow’s actions have been impossible to explain logically. They act entirely illogically, have no moral obligations, and lie in every situation. And this is nothing new for anyone who has ever dealt with Russians.

A direct analogy is clear: if Great Britain and France had helped Czechoslovakia stop Germany’s invasion, World War II might never have begun. Likewise, if Putin’s Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, the rogue Russian army will continue its advance into Europe, and one can only imagine how many European civilians would be killed.

Putin’s determination regarding Ukraine is fueled by his belief that he can get away with a limited nuclear strike, after which, in his view, Ukrainians must surrender. He assumes the United States will not risk American cities to defend Europe, and that Europeans have a very limited nuclear arsenal to use against Russia.

This can be partly explained by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s isolationist tendencies, reminiscent of early attempts by the 32nd president, Franklin Roosevelt, to keep the U.S. out of World War II. Yet such a Trump-like stance significantly increases the risk of a Third World nuclear war.

Putin, still trapped in the illusions of his Soviet communist past, dreams not only of reviving the USSR by occupying Ukraine but also of being the world’s ruler, ideally facing no resistance to his aggression and having the world bend to his absurd demands.

As 25 years ago, he operates under the flawed and unproven belief that the collective West is too divided and weak to confront Russia. European states, with their inept and constantly changing leadership, unlike his lifelong rule, cannot realistically oppose him.

Where he gets the notion that European countries are weak, their economies uncompetitive, and their militaries ineffective is unclear. Meanwhile, any gaps in Europe’s defense are being effectively addressed, and defense budgets are rising to counter the Russian threat.

Europe’s joint defense system is evolving rapidly, and national intelligence services monitor Moscow’s intentions and take necessary actions in response.

Yet all this is clearly insufficient. Moscow is targeting the European continent. So what more must Russia do for Europe to finally realize that the war in Ukraine is also their war?

Speaking on the apparent passivity of European leaders, Gabrielius Landsbergis called it a «geopolitical Groundhog Day», emphasizing: «Instead of asking whether we risk starting a Third World War, the question is whether we dare to stop it».