China’s hidden hand in Russia’s war – and the only exit it might offer Putin

The Russian-Ukrainian war has been going on for more than three and a half years. Putin cannot defeat Ukraine. If he could, he would have been in Kyiv long ago. But the absurdity of Russia’s continued war lies in the fact that the Russian dictator is not willing to lose to Ukraine, and therefore continues his uncompromising confrontation.

The question remains unanswered. After all, we remember well what happens to criminals who lose their power when they are subsequently accused of war crimes.

Moreover, in the event of his resignation, the all-powerful Putin understands that the political and economic elites of Russia will lay all the responsibility on him for the war in Ukraine, for the collapse of the Russian economy, and for the demographic catastrophe from which Russia will never recover. That is why he is stalling: he knows that the Kremlin insiders who now formally show him loyalty and political support would tear him to pieces if he fell.

By begging for weapons from Russia’s political partners – China, North Korea, and Iran – the aggressor Putin plays the role of a militarist beggar who is unable to give up his aggression, yet at the same time lacks the capacity to sustain it on his own. The new axis of evil is consolidating its efforts, and for China, it is important that its vassal Putin acts within the geopolitical boundaries defined for Russia.

Putin’s maniacal obsession with destroying Ukraine’s statehood has already led to the accession of new countries – Sweden and Finland – to the NATO bloc. Yet, while striving to conquer foreign lands, the Kremlin continues to turn a blind eye to the fact that Russia today faces a critical demographic deficit. Likewise, it ignores the fact that on China’s new 2025 map, numerous Russian territories are marked as part of the People’s Republic of China. And Russia remains silent about this Chinese map, which openly asserts claims to its territory.

When analyzing Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Chinese factor in this conflict is often overlooked. It is also frequently ignored that twice, following the end of the Olympic Games – in 2014 and 2022 – Chinese leader Xi Jinping gave his approval for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And if the People’s Republic of China were not assisting Russia, there might have been a chance for the Russian-Ukrainian war to end by late 2025 with Moscow’s defeat and the withdrawal of its troops from all Ukrainian territories. However, Beijing’s position on Ukraine consistently remains pro-Russian, and Xi Jinping himself is still convinced that the Russian Federation must prevail.

As is well known, Putin is deeply afraid of sharing Muammar Gaddafi’s fate. It is already clear that he will cling to power until the very end, believing that by doing so he can postpone the fate of the Libyan dictator. Gaddafi, at one time, refused offers from several Arab countries to grant him political asylum – a decision that ultimately ended tragically for him.

Now, judging by many developments in and around the Kremlin, it is becoming evident that the Russian dictator is beginning to lose control over the country whose power he usurped more than 25 years ago. And while the generals remain, for now, loyal to Putin, it cannot be ruled out that younger colonels may refuse to share with him the consequences of defeat in this war – and may finally decide to act preemptively.

For most Russian elites, Putin has long ceased to be a symbol of stability and a guarantor of their material well-being. He has now become a problem for the political establishment, the military, and security forces. After all, someone will have to answer for all the crimes committed by Russia’s terrorist forces in Ukraine. Only those who, in one way or another, manage to remove the despot from power will have a chance to receive clemency – but they will still have to fight for that right.

Putin’s recent behavior indicates that he intuitively understands the danger looming over him. Instead of continuing his rule in the Russian Federation, events could suddenly accelerate against him. This could happen when members of his closest circle – the so-called inner circle – finally decide that self-preservation comes first and that his remaining in the highest office in Russia poses a grave threat to them.

In this case, the course of events closely resembles the situation with Nicolae Ceaușescu. When Romanian society erupted in protests, the tyrant’s accomplices decided to suppress the popular uprising by eliminating Nicolae and Elena Ceaușescu. Clearly, such a scenario would be unacceptable to the usurper, and it is unlikely that he is prepared to see it through to the end.

No matter what Russian propagandists broadcast on Putin’s TV screens, the top Kremlin officials are already beginning to realize that the regime’s agony is approaching, and they are no longer able to avert it. Yet, in order to delay taking responsibility for all their crimes as long as possible, they will continue their losing, bloody game, hoping – like their idol Hitler once did – for some miracle. But no such miracle is foreseen for them, and none will come.

In such a critical situation for Russia, as it moves ever closer to collapse, Xi Jinping could, if he wished to prevent the ultimate downfall of Putin and his criminal cabal, put an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. But whether he will choose to do so is another question. The People’s Republic of China has already suffered significant economic losses from the Russian-Ukrainian war, and any expectation that Moscow could change the existing world order is entirely unfounded.

Theoretically, many possible forms of Chinese assistance to Putin can be considered. One realistic option might be the very one Muammar Gaddafi failed to take advantage of – voluntarily relinquishing power and leaving his country.

Beijing could, of course – after coordinating this with the United States and the European Union – offer political asylum in China to Putin and some members of his inner circle, setting aside a separate, closed territory for this purpose and settling all the Putinists together in one location.

Most likely, such a closed territory should not be organized in Beijing, Shanghai or Hong Kong – those places might not be very safe for political refugees from the Russian Federation. However, it would be possible to allocate a closed site in an autonomous region in northern China – Inner Mongolia – and settle there Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov, Matviyenko, Patrushev, Naryshkin, Medvedev, Sobyanin, Gerasimov, Kudrin. And also Kiriyenko, Peskov, Volodin, Surkov, Bortnikov, Zolotov, Ivanov, Yuryev, Menshchikov, Minaev.

And the main propagandists of the ideological front – Simonyan, Solovyov, Skabeeva, Popov, Sheynin and Kiselyov – will convince those exiles on domestic television that things aren’t so bad, since they could have been hanged, and here in China they feel completely safe.

A bifurcation point is approaching. Analyzing the scattered information coming from Moscow, one can assume that Putin could lose his power even before the new year of 2026. Many facts indicate that a coup is being prepared in the Kremlin. Whether it will succeed, however, is another matter.

However, if Xi Jinping does not want Putin to share the fate of Muammar Gaddafi or Nicolae Ceaușescu, he should offer him political asylum.

In Beijing, it is often repeated that the Russian-Ukrainian war needs to be brought to an end. And the best option would be to take the Russian dictator to China. Otherwise, Putin will continue the war, believing that he has no other way out.

The Chinese factor in Russia’s war in Ukraine is very powerful. Beijing should take the first step toward peace, because any attempt to preserve the regime of its long-time political vassal, Putin, is bound to fail.