Trump wants to pull out to Putin a victory from a mouth of defeat in Ukraine

«Artificial respiration» for the Kremlin. Donald Trump is trying to turn the defeat of the Russian dictator into a «shared triumph» The influential American magazine The Atlantic published an article by political analyst Robert Kagan «America vs. the World». The author is convinced that «President Trump wants to return to the international order of the 19th century. He will leave America less prosperous and the whole world less safe. The Trump administration enjoys pursuing its own interests and using force for its own sake, with a joyful disregard for the interests of others. Trump’s glorification of selfishness is based on a profound ignorance of the true sources of American power. Much of America’s influence in the world comes from treating others as part of a community of democratic nations or strategic partners».

The author of the article, Robert Kagan, emphasizes: «Others see it, even if many Americans do not understand it. One of the elements that holds the American order together is America’s reputation for morality and respect for international norms. Theodore Roosevelt, often considered the quintessential American realist who skillfully wielded the instruments of power, believed that great nations should ultimately be guided by an «international public conscience» that takes into account not only their own interests but also «the interests of others». A successful great power, he noted, cannot act «without taking into account the foundations of true morality».

All this, unfortunately, bears little resemblance to modern America. After all, its implementation of geopolitics resembles a theater of the absurd, where the main scriptwriter tries to save the antagonist whose role is coming to an end. Analyzing the strategy of United States President Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine, it is difficult to get rid of the feeling that we are witnessing an attempt to «resuscitate» the Putin regime.

Trump is trying to perform artificial respiration Putin’s apparent defeat, to pass it off as a «joint victory» and a new «era of stability». After years of exhausting war, the Russian Federation finds itself in a strategic stalemate. The takeover of all of Ukraine has failed, the economy is overheated by military spending, and technological isolation is becoming chronic.

However, the Trump administration, instead of sharply pressing the aggressor, is proposing plans based on the so-called «realities on the ground.» Throwing an American lifeline to an aggressor who won’t win. For Putin, this is the perfect way out. Gaining control of the occupied territories through the diplomatic table, rather than on the battlefield, would allow him to sell it to the Russian population as «achieving the goals of the NVO». Then Trump, in turn, receives the laurels of a «peacemaker» who allegedly stopped «World War III».

Rumors of the so-called Anchorage formula – a possible agreement between Trump and Putin to freeze the conflict on the front lines – indicate that Washington is willing to sacrifice Europe’s long-term security for short-term political dividends. The proposed peace plan effectively turns Ukraine into a demilitarized buffer zone, limiting its army and officially closing the door to NATO.

And this is not just «artificial respiration» to defeat Putin – it is an attempt to reformat Russia’s defeat into a successful operation to revise the world order. If Trump manages to legitimize Russian aggression, he will effectively abolish the principle of the inviolability of borders, which has been the basis of global security since 1945.

It is obvious that such an approach will only encourage the aggressor to new aggressions. Despite Donald Trump’s past rhetoric that he can «end the war in 24 hours», the reality is much more complicated. Putin continues to use terror as a negotiating tool, stepping up attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure even as the United States continues its diplomatic efforts.

For Ukraine, Trump’s plan looks like «capitulation in the guise of peace.» Instead of restoring its territorial integrity, Kyiv is being forced into «armed neutrality» without 20 percent of its land.

President Donald Trump wants a deal that will allow him to declare, «I stopped the slaughter.» But if the price of this «peace» is the survival of Putin’s regime and the consolidation of its territorial gains, it will not be a victory for either the United States or Ukraine. It will be just a pause that the Kremlin will use to prepare for the next round of aggression.

Instead of allowing Putin’s defeat to become the natural conclusion of this bloody adventure, Trump is trying to pass off the artificially sustained viability of the Russian Federation as a joint achievement. And the main stakes in this game are not just territory, but the very existence of international law.

By passing it off as peace, Donald Trump is actually preparing Ukraine’s capitulation. Trump’s «peace» is much more like a verbally veiled coercion for Ukrainians to admit their defeat. After all, behind the rhetoric about a quick end to the war lies a plan that, if implemented, will actually deprive Ukraine of its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

But despite the favorable conditions for the Russian Federation, Moscow continues to drag out the process, trying to get even greater concessions or wait for Ukrainian resistance to be exhausted. The statements of the Russian Foreign Ministry about the «stagnation» of relations indicate that dictator Putin views Trump’s plan only as a starting point for the further dismantling of Ukrainian statehood.

The implementation of such a plan without real guarantees threatens to transform Ukraine into a buffer zone with limited sovereignty, where formal «peace» will become only an operational pause before the next phase of Russian expansion and new attempts by Moscow to dismantle Ukrainian statehood.

The situation surrounding Trump’s plan in February 2026 indicates that the Kremlin is trying to use American initiatives as a tool for «hybrid surrender» of Ukraine. Because for Putin, any agreement based on Trump’s proposals is only a temporary respite. Because the Kremlin is not going to abandon its initial goals of completely eliminating Ukrainian sovereignty.

The Kremlin leader’s strategy in the future is to move from «Trump’s peace» to dismantling the Ukrainian state. At the same time, Moscow is using imitation negotiations to force Washington to abandon its support for Kyiv, demanding concessions that will turn Ukraine into a complete «gray zone» without an effective army and NATO membership.

Some of what is planned by the Putin regime is already being presented in Washington as its vision of a diplomatic solution. After all, the United States is considering the possibility of providing Kyiv with security guarantees only in exchange for Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donbas.

Without including Ukraine in the Western security system (NATO), Trump’s plan creates only the illusion of stability. For Putin, this is a way to wait out sanctions, rebuild the army, and prepare the ground for the final absorption of Ukraine in the future.

It is important to structure these risks through the prism of geopolitical strategy and security theory:

The trap of «armed neutrality». According to published data, Trump’s plan involves Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO for a long period (from 20 years) in exchange for further arms supplies. However, without collective security under Article 5, Ukraine remains in a «gray zone». This creates a situation where Russia can resume aggression at any time, as soon as it senses the political weakness of the West or its own advantage.
Resources for Putin’s «revenge». For the Kremlin, any «freezing» without clear security commitments from NATO is a strategic pause. And the lifting or easing of sanctions, which Putin demands, will allow Russia to rebuild its military-industrial complex.
Erosion of Western unity. Ukraine’s absence from NATO means that European security remains fragmented. Without decisive NATO action, Russia could attempt to test the Alliance’s strength in the Baltics a few years after the end of the active phase of the war in Ukraine.
The illusion of stability is no substitute for real guarantees. Trump is offering «NATO-style guarantees», but without the participation of US or NATO troops on the ground. This «deterrence by arms» is much weaker than «deterrence by presence» (NATO troops in Ukraine).

Without NATO membership, Ukraine risks becoming a «permanent frontier,» where stability depends solely on the mood in Washington and anticipation of Moscow’s revenge, which is the ideal scenario for Putin’s strategy of «finally resolving the Ukrainian issue».

A forced peace treaty in the Putin-Trump format carries systemic risks that make Ukraine’s capitulation only a matter of time. After all, turning Ukraine into a «bargaining coin» creates a precedent where large powers decide the fate of smaller ones, which returns Europe to the logic of the 19th century, where peace is fragile and depends only on the will of dictators. A «peace treaty» without clear guarantees of deterring the aggressor and restoring justice only becomes a mechanism for the deferred destruction of Ukrainian statehood.

Thus, neither Ukraine nor a united Europe, if they really care about their security and territorial integrity, must agree to a «Putin-Trump peace.» After all, having signed this «peace treaty,» it will then be impossible to avoid the capitulation of the Ukrainian state.