Russia Goes All-In in Armenia

After Yerevan hosted the EU summit, talk that Armenia is leaving Russia’s sphere of influence and moving toward Europe has intensified. But is this really the case? 

On the surface, it certainly appears so. Most likely, after the parliamentary elections, an official application for EU membership will be submitted (note that this does not mean imminent accession, but it does constitute a formal declaration). At the same time, however, the country remains in the CSTO (again, it should be noted that the organization’s charter does not provide for the «freezing of membership» declared by Yerevan – either a country leaves or it remains a member), is part of the EAEU, and hosts a Russian military base on its territory. Russia itself has unleashed a full-scale hybrid war against Armenia: it blocks or complicates the export of Armenian goods, conducts overt anti-European propaganda within the country, and verbally attacks Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Additionally, it invests in anti-Turkish and anti-Azerbaijani propaganda campaigns – this time targeting Armenia’s domestic audience.

Such an ambiguous situation cannot persist for long. Clearly, Pashinyan is waiting for the election results. And he is not alone – Armenian diaspora communities abroad are also waiting to decide whether to return or stay away; investors are waiting to determine whether to invest or not; and Russian emigrants who settled in Armenia after 2022 are deciding whether to remain or leave. For all these groups, the question is the same: what next? This question becomes particularly acute when considering Russia’s inevitable defeat in the war it started – sooner or later it will happen. The decline in oil revenues is already visible to the naked eye, and Moscow is, willingly or not, withdrawing from the South Caucasus.

To understand the internal logic of these processes, one should pay attention to the dependencies shaping Armenian politics. The first—and perhaps most important – is the signing of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. In essence, peace already exists de facto: there was the Washington Declaration in the presence of Trump; the creation of a new trade corridor – TRIPP – through Zangezur has been announced; border demarcation is nearing completion; and Azerbaijan is supplying Armenia with much-needed fuel under current conditions, lowering prices in the country and positively affecting the economy.

For peace to be formalized on paper, only one step remains – to remove from Armenia’s Declaration of Independence the reference to «Artsakh» (the Armenian term for Karabakh), since both de jure and de facto this region is an internationally recognized part of Azerbaijan.

However, this is precisely what Pashinyan cannot do under any circumstances before the parliamentary elections. Doing so would amount to political suicide: the pro-Russian opposition is building its campaign on this issue and would politically dismantle the prime minister entirely, while a significant portion of his own electorate would turn away from him. Thus, a peace agreement with Azerbaijan will not be signed before the elections.

This, in turn, means that the Armenian-Turkish border will not be opened, as Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made normalization of relations with Armenia directly dependent on the full resolution of the Karabakh issue. A closed border means that logistics between Armenia and Europe must pass through a narrow and inconvenient corridor via Georgia. This fact renders the declared reorientation toward the West an empty – albeit loud – statement: without proper trade flows, it is physically impossible.

At the same time, the Zangezur corridor, or TRIPP, guarantees Armenia prosperity – it would become one of the partners in a new Silk Road bypassing Russia and Iran, allowing goods from Central Asia and China to reach the EU, picking up Armenian goods along the way. According to various experts, this corridor would bring Armenia about one billion dollars in revenue and increase GDP growth to 4 percent. This would enable Armenia to disengage from Russia and Iran.

This is precisely why an aggressive campaign against Pashinyan and the peace process is being waged in Russia by all available means. Recently, it became known that one of the instruments of influence is former prosecutor of the UN International Criminal Court, Luis Ocampo.

A leaked video of his private conversation revealed that Russia is paying him both to attempt to remove Pashinyan and to influence European Union decisions as part of a biased propaganda campaign against Azerbaijan aimed at derailing the peace agreement.

In the published recordings, Luis Ocampo spoke about collusion with wealthy Armenians living in Russia to create a special fund. «What we need to achieve is to remove Pashinyan…», Ocampo states in a recording published by the Romanian edition of Newsweek. He mentions «his man» in Brussels – a former Member of the European Parliament and legal adviser to the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell.

«This guy now works for me in the European Parliament. In the European Parliament, I can reach out, I can challenge, I can submit questions and exert pressure on Commissioner von der Leyen, and in this way shape European policy… We are increasing the pressure, and I am going to do this together with the Armenian lobby in the United States», the former prosecutor says.

It appears that among the oligarchs of Armenian origin paying Ocampo may be Samvel Karapetyan, a citizen of both Russia and Armenia and an opponent of Pashinyan.

Thus, the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia are becoming a key historical moment for the country. If the ruling Civil Contract party (the party of Prime Minister Pashinyan) wins with a result sufficient to continue governing, the prime minister will gain a mandate for action, and the entire chain will begin to move toward Europe: through a referendum, the «Artsakh» clause – analogous to the DPR – will be removed from the Declaration of Independence; Pashinyan and Aliyev will sign a peace agreement; Turkey will open the Armenian border; logistics will be established; and no objective factors will hinder integration into the EU. Armenia will be able to leave the CSTO, dismiss Roskomnadzor and its bans on Armenian flowers and Armenian mineral water, and seriously pursue European reforms.

If not – then nothing will change. Europe will wait for decades more, and Armenia will continue sleeping in the same bed with Russia. Thus, the elections will not determine «who you support», but rather «whether you are ready for transformation and for the European path».