The collapse of the Ukraine-Poland strategic partnership: A geopolitical misjudgment by Warsaw

In his article «W sporze z Ukrainą Polska mrugnęła pierwsza» (In the dispute with Ukraine, Poland was the first to blink) in the influential national Polish daily newspaper Rzeczpospolita, Professor of the University of Warsaw and former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland Jacek Czaputowicz demonstrated an understanding of the processes taking place in Ukrainian-Polish relations. After all, time after time, by making unacceptable demands on Ukraine, Warsaw is thereby cutting off the opportunity for itself to be involved in creating a common history of a free Europe and laying the foundation for protection against threats coming from Russia.

As Professor Jacek Czaputowicz emphasized: «Thanks to the strength of its military capabilities and the resilience of its society, Ukraine is becoming a decisive geopolitical center. It has proven its ability to defend its sovereignty, is rethinking the modern art of war, and is making an increasing contribution to the architecture of European security. Against this background, Poland’s gesture towards Zelenskyy turned out to be not a demonstration of strength, but rather a demonstration of its own limitations. In this game, Ukraine did not retreat – Poland did».

The destruction of the strategic tandem «Ukraine-Poland» is a geopolitical miscalculation by Warsaw, which can negatively affect the historical future of Poland and lead to the repetition of the tragic mistakes of the past. After all, when Kyiv and Warsaw conflict, only Russia wins, which destroys both in turn. The current disputes open the way for a repetition of this tragedy.

European history has repeatedly demonstrated that the fate of states is determined not only by their military or economic power, but also by the ability of political elites to correctly assess the strategic trends of the era. The greatest geopolitical mistakes usually occur when current emotions, internal political disputes, or historical grievances begin to prevail over a sober vision of the future.

It is through this prism that it is worth considering the current state of Ukrainian-Polish relations, which are facing a serious test at a time when both countries should act as natural allies in the face of the greatest security crisis in Europe since the end of World War II.

The full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine has radically changed the political map of the European continent. It has not only destroyed the old ideas about the European security system, but has also created new centers of power that many people thought were impossible even ten years ago. One of these centers is Ukraine. The state, which for a long time was perceived by a significant part of Western European politics as a peripheral space between the West and Russia, has today become one of the key factors in the formation of a new security architecture on the continent.

This is precisely what Jacek Czaputowicz, former Polish Foreign Minister and professor at the University of Warsaw, drew attention to, and in his publication he demonstrated an understanding of the depth of the transformations taking place in modern Europe. His assessment deserves special attention not only because it comes from an influential Polish intellectual and diplomat, but also because it reflects a strategic view of Ukraine’s place in the future continental order.

When Professor Čaputovych says that, thanks to the strength of its military capabilities and the resilience of its society, Ukraine is becoming a decisive geopolitical center, he is actually stating a new political reality. Ukraine is not simply defending itself from Russian aggression. It has become a state that is shaping new standards of modern warfare, new principles of national mobilization, and new approaches to collective security. The experience of the Ukrainian army is now being studied in military academies around the world, and Ukrainian technological solutions on the battlefield are becoming the subject of detailed analysis in NATO countries.

At the same time, some European politicians do not always have time to realize the scale of these changes. In many capitals, the inertia of thinking still persists, formed in the conditions of the post-war European order, when Ukraine was considered mainly as an object of international politics, and not as its active subject. However, the reality is different. Now, without Ukraine, it is practically impossible to imagine a system of deterrence against Russia, the stability of NATO’s eastern flank, or the future security architecture of the European Union.

That is why the issue of Polish policy towards Ukraine is of particular importance. After Ukraine regained its independence in 1991, Poland was one of the most consistent advocates of Ukrainian integration into European and Euro-Atlantic structures. And we will always remember this.

It was Warsaw that for many years convinced the West of the need to take the threats coming from the Kremlin more seriously. Previous Polish politicians emphasized that a secure Central and Eastern Europe is impossible without an independent Ukraine. But now a paradoxical situation is emerging, when part of the Polish political class is beginning to consciously deviate from its own long-standing strategic doctrine.

There are undoubtedly complex historical issues between Ukraine and Poland. They concern the tragic pages of the past, different interpretations of historical events and the memory of the victims of interethnic conflicts. These issues require honest dialogue, mutual respect and a willingness to compromise. However, the problem arises when historical disputes begin to determine the strategic policy of states in the 21st century. At a time when big politics always requires the ability to distinguish fundamental interests of national security from emotional discussions around the past.

History knows many examples when states that had been at war with each other for centuries became allies for the sake of a common future. France and Germany after the Second World War were able to turn mutual hostility into the basis of European integration. That is why the modern European Union became possible. If Paris and Berlin had continued to build their policies exclusively around historical images, modern Europe would never have come into being.

Whether Warsaw wants to admit it or not, in this sense, Ukrainian-Polish relations have a much broader dimension than bilateral diplomacy. It is about the future of the entire region from the Baltic to the Black Sea. It is here that a new strategic space is being formed, which is gradually becoming one of the centers of political gravity in Europe. Ukraine and Poland are the two largest states in this space. They have a common interest in containing Russian revisionism, strengthening the eastern flank of the West, and developing new transport, energy, and military corridors.

But if Warsaw begins to view Ukraine primarily from the perspective of historical claims or short-term domestic political interests, it risks losing a unique opportunity to become a co-creator of a new geopolitical construct for Europe. Such a narrowing of the horizon to the level of past grievances or electoral dividends will not only weaken bilateral trust, but also turn Warsaw from a regional leader into a passive observer.

Instead of forming a strong Baltic-Black Sea Security Union and jointly defining the future architecture of the European Union, Poland risks finding itself on the periphery of major geopolitical decisions. The loss of a strategic partnership with Kyiv will automatically strengthen the Kremlin’s position and force Western European capitals to negotiate about the security of Eastern Europe through the heads of its direct participants.

I would like to remind you that in politics there are moments when historical windows of opportunity open. And they do not last forever. States that realize the nature of changes in time gain strategic advantages for decades to come. Those who do not notice new realities or ignore them often remain hostages of their own miscalculations and ambitions.

Particularly revealing are the words of Professor Czaputowicz that in a specific political confrontation it was not Ukraine that retreated, but Poland. This statement contains an important thought. The geopolitical weight of a state is determined not only by its intentions, but also by its ability to influence the course of events. Ukraine is now demonstrating subjectivity, which is recognized by leading world capitals. It participates in the formation of decisions, and not only reacts to them. It is this circumstance that fundamentally changes the nature of relations between Kyiv and its partners.

For Poland, this means the need to adapt to the new reality. Ukraine is no longer a junior partner, as some in Warsaw may still believe, who can be lectured or forced into unilateral concessions. It is becoming an equal participant in the larger European politics. The sooner the Polish political elite realizes this, the more opportunities Poland itself will have to strengthen its own influence in Europe.

Russia is closely watching any conflicts between its European allies. The Kremlin’s strategy for decades has been based on the principle of dividing and weakening its opponents.

Any deterioration in Ukrainian-Polish relations objectively works in favor of Russian interests, regardless of the motives behind specific political decisions. That is why the strategic partnership between Kyiv and Warsaw is important not only for the two states, but also for the entire security system of Central and Eastern Europe.

In the long term, the future of the region will largely depend on whether Ukraine and Poland can find a balance between remembering the past and taking responsibility for the future. Politicians come and go, election campaigns end at some point, but geography remains the same. Ukraine and Poland are destined to be neighbors, and therefore they are doomed either to cooperate or to weaken each other. History leaves almost no third option.

That is why Warsaw faces a strategic choice today. It can become one of the main architects of a new Europe, which is being formed in the conditions of Russian aggression and global transformations of the security order.

Or it risks losing this opportunity by allowing tactical disputes to overshadow strategic interests. In international politics, the biggest mistakes are often not wrong actions, but missed opportunities. And if Poland abandons the prospect of a powerful Ukrainian-Polish tandem, the consequences of such a decision could reverberate for many decades, affecting not only Warsaw’s place in Europe but also the entire security configuration of the continent.

History offers Poland and Ukraine a chance to shape Europe’s future together. The only question is whether those who now make political decisions in Warsaw will have the political wisdom to seize this chance, or whether short-sighted calculations will prove stronger than strategic vision.

The answer to this question depends on much more than the fate of bilateral relations between Ukraine and Poland. It also determines the future architecture of Central and Eastern Europe and the ability of the democratic world to resist the revisionist ambitions of totalitarian Russia.